Roger Federer Australian open 2010

Roger Federer is always the man to beat?

BRAD'S TIP: Looks likely to advance to at least the last 4, and may offer a small margin for punters to ensure profit if he makes it to the semi final stage, and slightly more if he can make his second consecutive final. He is the class player of the tournament and must be written off at your own peril, but the value on offer to LAY Federer and hope for a third straight Australian Open miss is just as difficult to dismiss. The upcoming release of the draw will shed a little more light as he looks to take his grand slam title tally to a staggering 16.

Roger Federer has missed the final of a grand slam event just once since Roland Garros in 2005, when he was overpowered by the master of clay, Rafael Nadal, in the semi final. Since then, he has advanced at the very least to the final of every grand slam event but the 2008 Australian Open when ousted by Serb Novak Djokovic. Brad Thompson assesses the chances of the current world number one.

Following that defeat back in 2005, the Swiss ace prevailed in 8 of the next 10 grand slams. More recently he has been forced to accept only moderate success with victory in 'only' 3 of the last 8 grand slams. Federer's overall success is gauged by grand slam titles. He is fixated on and prepares to peak at the right time for four events on the tennis calendar, each year beginning with the Australian Open. Outlining his undeniable talent is the notion that winning just 3 of the last 8 grand slams would be self assessed as a cause for concern by the great man.

There is no denying Federer has been the man to beat whenever he steps out onto the court, and still is. But his record is slowly becoming less daunting, and the more frequent losses have rendered him less and less intimidating.

In 2009, he has suffered losses at the hands of all his main rivals contending for this year's Australian Open crown. Rising young Scot Andy Murray has inflicted defeat twice, Novak Djokovic thrice, Jo Wilfried Tsonga has tasted success along with Juan Martin Del Potro in this year's US Open final. Add to the list two players whose names you probably wouldn't have heard of, and Roger Federer is a far cry from his once invincible self.

The past 4 years Federer has made it to the Australian Open final, but has failed at the last hurdle in his past two attempts with defeat at the hands Novak Djokovic in 2008, and last year going down to Rafael Nadal. His record of missing the final just twice in his past 19 grand slam title appearances indicates he should once again make it to the final, or at the very least the semi finals.

His main danger is Novak Djokovic, who he is likely to face in the semi final stage if all things go to plan. We also have to remember that the world number one ranking is up for grabs this week, with Rafael Nadal capable of owning the top spot once again with success at the ATP World Tour final in London.

Andy Murray, despite multiple wins over Federer in 2009, seems to lacks the firepower and maturity to overcome the world number one when a grand slam title is for the taking. Rafael Nadal proved capable of overcoming Federer in last year's Australian Open final, but the question marks surrounding his fitness pose a serious obstacle.

FEDERER'S DRAW: TBA