Tennis form for the Australian open

How are the top mens players shaping up?

Federer   Nadal   Murray   Djokovic   Del potro  

CAN RAFA REIGN SUPREME AGAIN?

Defending Australian Open champion Rafael Nadal occupies the number two ranking in the tennis world, with the chance to overtake main rival and world number one Roger Federer at this week's ATP World Tour final in London, writes Brad Thompson.

However, Nadal remains largely friendless with punters in his tilt for back-to-back Australian open crowns, languishing in a four-way struggle for runner-up favouritism. This is despite boasting a 40% strike rate in the last ten grand slams. In fact, Federer and Nadal have acquired 9 of the past 10 grand slam titles.

Federer, with victory in 5 of the last 10 grand slam events will commence the tournament as a well supported and pronounced favourite. Conversely, punters have decided that three players have as much, if not more chance than Nadal to topple The Fed Express - Young Scot Andy Murray, 2008 Australian Open champion Novak Djokovic and 2009 US Open winner Juan Martin Del Potro. Sure, they have some serious claims but more of a chance than last year's champion Rafael Nadal?

In this year's US Open Nadal fell at the quarter final stage to a barnstorming Juan Martin Del Potro, who subsequently went on to beat Roger Federer in the final. The story was similar at Roland Garros, a location where Nadal was four-time reigning champion. The Spaniard went down to eventual finalist Robin Soderling in the round of 16. On face value, it was a disappointing result for the master of clay, but Soderling was in superb touch succumbing only to Federer in the final.

Nadal's past six months have been marred by injury, he was unable to defend his Wimbledon crown after knee tendonitis enforced a stint on the sidelines. His last win was over six months ago in Rome, leading some punters to believe he out of form. A semi final appearance in the US Open indicates he isn't far from his best, and as is the case with many injury forced layoffs it can take time to rediscover top gear.

Despite his injury troubles, Nadal enjoyed another stellar season, winning five-tour level titles. He joins Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray as the only three players to have notched up at least 60 wins in tour-level matches.

Above all, Nadal possesses an imposing record against world number one Roger Federer with a 13-7 win-loss record. Even more importantly, in grand slam events the ledger is increasingly lopsided with Nadal reigning supreme in 6 out of 8 encounters, the most relevant being a win in the Australian Open last year.

If you subscribe to the notion that Rafael Nadal can play himself into some form, and peak for a successful defence of his crown then he has to be the value choice. With many markets displaying Nadal as a clear fifth elect, it seems the money will come for all but the Spaniard. It opens up healthy odds for a recently proven Australian Open competitor with such raw talent.

Back him early, and set up the chance to layoff and ensure profit if he makes it to the final four.