Raphael Nadal Australian open 2010

Raphael Nadal - World number 1?

BRAD'S TIP: Semi finalist in 2008 and winner of this event last year signals his likening to the Melbourne Park surface, and the weather conditions players are forced to overcome. Nadal's recent form is questionable, and it's uncertain whether the injuries he has endured are inhibiting his performance. The draw plays a huge part in Nadal's chances, but at this stage I can't find a spot for him in my top 3 selections.

Last year Rafael Nadal was crowned Australian Open champion at extraordinary odds for an in-form world number one. This year is no different, and despite losing his number one ranking and mixing his form the Spaniard still represents appealing value for punters who believe he is capable of making it back-to-back titles.

Nadal was unable to defend his 2008 Wimbledon title after succumbing to knee tendonitis and his injury riddled last few months must come into consideration. Robin Soderling has enjoyed great success against Nadal in 2008, registering wins against him in the round of 16 on his beloved clay of Roland Garros and just recently in straight sets at the ATP world Tour final in London.

Nadal's chance of retaining the top spot in the world rankings has now disappeared.

But it's hard to discount the former world number one's chances of defending his Australian Open crown. The positives are that he revels in the searing temperatures that will more than likely grace Melbourne Park at some stage during the tournament. Plus, his grand slam losses this year were to the form player of the event - Soderling at Roland Garros and eventual winner Juan Martin Del Potro at the US Open.

One must wonder how match-fit and mentally hardened Nadal actually is, and if he genuinely ready for a grand slam tournament.

A favourable draw will enhance his chances, preferably one that dodges his impassable rival Robin Soderling.

As the market stands at present, Rafael Nadal is the $7.60 third elect

NADAL'S DRAW: TBA